Welcome to Redefining Society, where today we're unpacking the Camp David Pact and its dual focus on defense and technology, particularly how it shapes the global semiconductor landscape and impacts U.S.-China relations.
Guest: Bill Echikson, Senior Fellow at Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) [@cepa]
On Linkedin | https://www.linkedin.com/in/billechikson/
On Twitter | https://twitter.com/bechkson
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Host: Marco Ciappelli, Co-Founder at ITSPmagazine [@ITSPmagazine] and Host of Redefining Society Podcast
On ITSPmagazine | https://www.itspmagazine.com/itspmagazine-podcast-radio-hosts/marco-ciappelli
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Episode Introduction
Hello, everyone, and welcome to another episode of Redefining Society, part of the ITSPmagazine Podcast Network. I'm your host, Marco Ciappelli, and today we're diving deep into a topic that's not just about technology, but also about geopolitics, economics, and the very fabric of our global society.
If you've been following this channel, you know we explore the intersection of technology, cybersecurity, and society. We don't just look at the bits and bytes; we look at the bigger picture—the societal and human implications of the tech world we live in. Sometimes we get philosophical, sometimes we get speculative, but we always aim to get you thinking.
Today, we have a special guest, Bill Echikson, a Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, or CEPA for short. Bill brings a wealth of knowledge not just in tech policy but also in how technology intersects with geopolitics. We're going to talk about a subject that's making headlines but is often misunderstood: the global semiconductor industry and its geopolitical ramifications, particularly concerning China.
Why semiconductors, you ask? Well, these tiny chips are the building blocks of modern technology. From your smartphone to national defense systems, semiconductors are the unsung heroes—or perhaps the hidden puppet masters—of our digital age. And right now, there's a sort of 'chip war' going on, a struggle for control and dominance in this crucial sector.
We'll be referencing a recent article from CEPA titled "Camp David Pact is About Defense — And Tech," which discusses a new security agreement between the U.S., Japan, and South Korea. The pact aims to limit China's access to advanced technology that could have military applications. But as we'll discuss, the implications go far beyond just military concerns.
So, whether you're a tech enthusiast, a policy wonk, or just someone who wants to understand the world a little better, this episode is for you. We're going to explore how technology isn't just a tool but a force that shapes economies, influences politics, and impacts human lives on a grand scale.
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Resources
Camp David Pact is About Defense — And Tech: https://cepa.org/article/camp-david-pact-is-about-tech-and-defense/
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To see and hear more Redefining Society stories on ITSPmagazine, visit:
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Please note that this transcript was created using AI technology and may contain inaccuracies or deviations from the original audio file. The transcript is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a substitute for the original recording as errors may exist. At this time we provide it “as it is” and we hope it can be useful for our audience.
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[00:00:00] Marco Ciappelli: And here we are. Hello, everybody. This is Marco Ciappelli on Redefining Society podcast, ITSPmagazine Podcast Network. Uh, my channel, as if you've been following, we talk about a lot of things because almost everything nowadays revolve around society, technology. I mean, technology is everywhere. And, uh, I leave cyber security to other expert. I like to kind of look into the past, the present and the future. And sometimes in this conversation, we go philosophical and sometimes we, we can look at the dystopian scenario, the utopian scenario, and, you know, we use our fantasy and our knowledge. In this case, actually, we're going to talk about something related to things that are happening nowadays.
They're very relevant. Um, in the, in the global, uh, stage, uh, still related to technology, but very much related to politics, economics, and, and all of that. And for the people watching the video, Bill is here. And for the people listening, Still, Bill is here.
Uh, how are you doing Bill today?
[00:01:09] Bill Echikson: Hi, I'm Bill Etchikson and I'm based in Brussels. I work with the Center for European Policy Analysis where I edit. I'm a senior fellow and I edit the uh, what we call the bandwidth column because just as you were describing we uh, a Washington based think tank or Think tanks are beginning to, that are traditionally, uh, just talking about geopolitics, defense and security, uh, are, are waking up to the fact that technology and tech policy, uh, is key to, uh, geopolitics these days.
Who controls semiconductors, uh, controls the world in many ways. It controls the future. So that's what we're here to discuss.
[00:01:53] Marco Ciappelli: That's under very 1984 who control the past, control the future.
[00:01:59] Bill Echikson: It wasn't meant to be dystopian. That's my brain. Yeah, actually, I mean, I started my career as a journalist, so I know what you're doing. provoking me, which is good. And then I earned my tech chops by seven and a half years at Google. And I do believe that the rise of the internet has really spread democracy, or did democratize access to information. It really changed the world. When I was starting out as a journalist, Long time ago, I had to use a typewriter and use the subway and go up to the telegraph office to send my articles, which would then be read two days later.
Uh, so I, I, I really do, uh, I believe the internet, you know, makes life a lot easier and, uh, gives me much more access to information to discuss. And we can also talk about the, uh, you know, the downsides of that, uh, free flow of information.
[00:03:00] Marco Ciappelli: You know, I, I'm going, I'm going to invite you already officially to come back and we will have this conversation where we're talking about how media have changed through the time.
Like, you know, and, and I, I, that's actually something that I really enjoy, uh, discuss. Uh, But, uh, today actually we're talking about, you mentioned semiconductor and, and the reason what suggested to me, I guess, is because there was this article that, that you guys wrote about the Camp David Pact. And it's, uh, it's something that happened not too long ago.
August 21st was the article when you, when you publish it. And it's the USA, uh, Japanese and South Korean leaders, they signed a security agreement, which has. Pretty much China in focus. And, uh, there are military repercussion here. There is, I think, uh, patents. I think there is tech, high tech, probably artificial intelligence going in.
So, uh, for people that maybe have heard the news and they are afraid of, you know, what does it mean this Tech that goes in the hands of the enemy, which I hope it's not something that we need to To to be afraid of but certainly there is competition and certainly there are consequences. So what's the big picture here?
[00:04:19] Bill Echikson: so I think the big picture is um this I mean breakthrough meeting at Camp David bringing together our big allies in Asia, South Korea and Japan Uh, was supposed to be a lot about defense, you know, missiles and rockets and, uh, airplane, jet planes fighting over the Taiwan Straits and so forth. Uh, um, and it was about security, but the subtext, and that's what we were writing about, uh, was that there was a lot of, uh, technology component to this.
And I think, uh, semiconductors are a good illustration. Uh, the United States. And its allies want to stay ahead of China. They don't want to be dependent on China for advanced technologies. And to do that, to achieve that goal, Camp David was talking about how we need to work with the Japanese and the South Koreans and our allies here in Europe.
To prevent China from surpassing us and, and, and threatening us with their ability to, to, uh, wield technology, but also that we're not held back because they, they're able to control critical minerals or, or able to, uh, uh, dominate production of, of the most sensitive technology. So there was an element of this Camp David Accord.
Uh, that was, uh, crucial about military matters, but also about working together to de risk is the word we're using these days from China.
[00:05:59] Marco Ciappelli: So I like to ask myself, what would the audience Ask, right? So, um, I'm assuming at this point that a lot of people may be thinking, wait a minute, isn't most of the technology that we get in the US and Europe and other parts of the world actually made in China?
I mean, if you think a big company, um, that are American or European, they do have manufactured there. So number one, um, even the short of microchip during the pandemic where you couldn't find the car, you know, the connection is there. The market is global. And as far as I know, I think South Korea works a lot With China, and that's, I guess, why it was a very important meeting and the pact, this one here.
So, just to put things into perspective and maybe look a little bit back, how did we get here, where China, I feel like we've been kind of the western country and the advanced country that kind of empowered China to have this kind of technology.
[00:07:04] Bill Echikson: Yeah, I mean, to be sure we've integrated into a global economy where China has had a remarkable rise in the last couple decades.
Um, so I think, you know, starting with Trump and the changes in China, I think it's on both sides, the tone really hardened. Uh, and the fears on each side, uh were strengthened Um the initial idea I think of the biden administration as expressed was to decouple almost from china But that's unrealistic. I mean the allies japan, south korea Europe and even the United States were too tied.
So this idea of decoupling, I mean, when it was first announced, uh, under the, the Biden administration, uh, that security trumped economic, uh, in all cases, I, I think they've walked that back a little bit. We have agreed on the term de risking, uh, making ourselves less, um, uh, reliant on China. So And, uh, uh, making sure that China can't, um, use its economic power to, uh, cause security threats.
I think that's a general agreement. It's a term that was invented here in Europe, uh, by the European Commission President, uh, Ursula von der Leyen, and then adopted by the Americans, and now at Camp David, I think, really adopted by the South Koreans and, and, and Japanese. So the question is, is how do we fill that in?
How do we achieve that goal? And that's what they, we still have to see how it works. Uh, um, and it's going to be tough.
[00:08:49] Marco Ciappelli: It's kind of like you declared the intention. Now we'll figure out how to get
[00:08:54] Bill Echikson: There are some some uh, uh, you know elements that we can already See and that are visible Um, we can see that the united states has put export controls on the most advanced Uh, semi conductor technology.
Uh, so the most advanced NVIDIA chips, for example, that are doing the generative AI applications. Um, those aren't going to be able to be exported to China. Um, we also see that the United States to have this make this effective, this type of export controls, it needs its allies because here in Europe, you know, are the most advanced imaging, uh, technologies and the most advanced etching material, uh, uh, machines are made just a couple of miles from where I'm sitting in, in the Netherlands. And that's, uh, uh, you know, so we needed the export controls to include the Netherlands ASML company that makes those, uh, hard to duplicate machines. And, and the Dutch have agreed to, to follow the American lead.
In, uh, You're in Asia again, the discussion in Camp David, we needed the South Koreans to avoid producing or replacing the NVIDIA chips or the, the, the, the most advanced technology in the South Koreans have agreed Samsung and Hynix are, are not going to, uh, It's not going to withdraw from China. They're still going to, uh, to sell to China.
NVIDIA will too, but just not its most advanced materials. And the Japanese, who have, uh, a lot of the important, uh, also imaging technologies and chemicals that are needed in South Korea, are definitely going to, are on board to limit the sales of that, uh, Most advanced technology to China.
[00:10:47] Marco Ciappelli: Right now, historically, I think this is important if I if I remember, you know, from from my study and reading some news, I mean, South Korea and Japan, even if they're, you know, neighborhood, they don't have like such a friendly history.
I mean, we can go back into actual invasion back in the days. But you know, we need to look at the present, we need to look at the future. So this is also from a political perspective. A big, a big event.
[00:11:17] Bill Echikson: Yeah, giant. I was just, I, in the spring, I visited both South Korea and Japan and it's certainly raw.
Uh, Japan occupied South Korea. Uh, the issue of, uh, forced prostitution, comfort women, uh, and, uh, Japan's unwillingness to, uh, Uh give what the koreans consider an acceptable apology But I was in seoul the day that the japanese prime minister, uh, fushida Uh, kishida visited and I saw his uh, his motorcade roll by and things are changing there, too I think on both sides, uh, there is movement China is scaring the daylights out of them and they're they're together and they they want the americans Uh to be in a closer embrace.
It's a major So, uh, you know, talking defense security, Camp David represents a major strategic win for America. It's just that part of that strategic win, uh, win has to also include tech policy.
[00:12:18] Marco Ciappelli: Yeah. And then I, I wanted to go there, not just, you know, to, to go to talk about other things, but to, to kind of show that you can't really detach technology.
And this is kind of like at the core of all my conversation from everything else. Right? I mean, it's, it's everything. It's synergic. Everything depends. If something happened here, happens there, it's cultural things that sometimes affect political and economic decision. And, you know, it's not often time people that talk tech, they like to think, well, tech is tech, tech.
You know, it's a silo and it isn't.
[00:12:56] Bill Echikson: You're right. It isn't just, uh, you know, our, our person, our computers and our, our mobile phones. It really does. Uh, I think tech is really central now to geopolitics and that's where SIPA, where I'm working, uh, really has woken up and is, uh, like other think tanks embracing this idea.
That tech needs to be considered along the same at the same level if not even ahead of uh, uh, whether we're going to sell f 16s to uh, or or deploy, uh, the marines somewhere cyber warfare Um looking in china. I mean this is you know, elon must control of starlink is is a major geopolitical security Challenge for opportunity and challenge, I would say, for much of the world.
So yes, I think, you know, the military and the policymakers have woken up that tech is something on the front lines.
[00:13:59] Marco Ciappelli: Absolutely. Now, is there a, and I know there is a note on this in the article, like, is there a potential counterproductive situation that will be developing because of this? I mean, what, what could be the downfall of
[00:14:20] Bill Echikson: the downfall is, is when you start, uh, uh, I mean, part of the tech policy that we're talking in an alliance is subsidizing production at home.
So, uh, yeah. Uh, actually much of the production comes from Taiwan. So under threat and risked, uh, at risk from Chinese and Asian, uh, and so forth. Uh, so, uh, there is a sense that as much of the production of this material has moved to South Korea and Taiwan, uh, the United States and Europe both want to start subsidizing semiconductor production.
And we've seen, uh, uh, big investments, uh, European governments, particularly the German government, to entice both the chip makers, Intel, and Taiwan Semiconductor to build huge plants outside of Berlin. The United States, with its CHIPS Act, is subsidizing foundries all over the United States. So there is a sense that we are going to subsidize and use protectionism, and sometimes that can backfire because You end up, uh, sort of, uh, getting lazy on government money and, and, and not feeling that you need to innovate as, as fast as possible.
I think we use the example in various articles of, uh, uh, you know, uh, restrictions that we put on X or export controls we put on, uh, satellites to say, uh, 20 years later, we looked at it, we'd lost Competitivity by protecting our own industry. So that's the boomerang, the potential boomerang Uh that could be put if we become very statist in our Uh tech policy.
[00:16:01] Marco Ciappelli: Well now i'm gonna put my idea list Uh, hat on and, and I look at, for example, you know, India just landed, uh, a rover on the moon. Uh, Russia didn't, uh, there are things that I always look at and I actually have the opportunity to talk with many astronauts on my show and, you know, when you have the overview effect, uh, and, and the collaboration that we've seen in international space station that show that when you do things together.
The humanity take advantage of it. And when we try to do it alone or in different groups and compete one another, it's really tough because on one side, competition can help. And the other side, you would think, like, what if we were all Be able to think together and just have the same objective so big philosophical Angle here, but I'd love to to know your opinion
[00:17:00] Bill Echikson: But it can be much simpler, you know nvidia no longer can sell its most expensive chips To China, um, that's a big customer that's being taken off the market in the end That means nvidia will have less money Nvidia's problem now probably isn't quite that because it can't produce enough to to produce to satisfy uh western customers, but It loses a big customer, its profits go down, it has less money to put into research, and boomerang, you have a company that could have been more successful than it's allowed to be because we're in this.
Tech cold war with China. So I mean that's where it becomes a balancing act, right? Uh, the We're still allowing american south korean japanese uh companies to sell chips to china because uh also, uh You know, it's a giant market and you know, apple, uh, apple computers are still being Assembled in china so they need to have the chips there uh, so This is where the world is no longer black and white and becomes in grays and where it becomes It's tricky in a balancing act.
So, you know, we all agree we want to de risk from China, but, uh, we don't really know what the full extent of de risking is or exactly, uh, the right balance to be, uh, be, be when de risking becomes, uh, sort of, uh, dangerous for ourselves as well.
[00:18:40] Marco Ciappelli: So two questions. One is, And again, you know, the audience may ask that, isn't China advanced enough on technology by, learning how to do all these things and they have bright minds over there.
I mean, they, it's not, it's not the China of, you know, Marco Polo.
[00:19:00] Bill Echikson: So
[00:19:01] Marco Ciappelli: do we really say like, look, we're not giving you this anymore. And all of a sudden your progress stop? Hard to believe.
[00:19:10] Bill Echikson: It is, um, it's a really good question. I, I believe, um, you know, China reacted to Camp David Accords, uh, with, uh, sound and fury, anger, uh, it certainly wasn't, uh, wasn't happy.
In our research, we have shown, in semiconductors at least, that, uh, Uh, China still is struggling to reach the same level of success, uh, as the latest western technology and the the tininess of the of the components are going in and the wafers going into the chips Um, they, they certainly have nothing to compare with ASML in the Netherlands of these laser imaging machines needed to produce chips.
Uh, they haven't reached the Taiwanese level of, of, uh, sophistication. And we're kind of skeptical that they can, at least in the short term. So, uh, uh, while China can pour state subsidies and certainly, uh, has, has, uh, made incredible advances, uh, we're kind of optimistic that we can stay ahead. Uh, of them.
Uh, time will only tell if that's a, a naive assumption, but it's, I also think not, um, it's pretty naive to believe the Chinese can just, uh, catch up in every area, especially with their economy that's sort of struggling and a system that, while impressive, uh, an authoritarian system that doesn't really allow for for, um, uh, much, uh, confidence in the future in some ways, or much freedom to, to, to innovate.
[00:20:58] Marco Ciappelli: Now, I don't know if it's a consequence of these or other things, but just a couple of days ago, if not yesterday in the news, there was something that there was an opening in the conversation now with, with China, like that, that they are willing to. You know, come on the table and, and, and discuss. And, so I, I don't know if that's the reason, but I think that when you're facing such alliance, you need to calm down a little bit.
[00:21:27] Bill Echikson: Well, the U S commerce secretary, Gina Raimondo was just in Beijing. I think, you know, the American attitude over the last year has definitely, um, softened uh back in a year ago when the first export controls were the first biden export controls, I think were announced or Reinforced, uh, the the talk really was, uh, pretty hard line decoupling Security trumps economics and then we've seen the american officials roll that back over this This past year, and I think, uh, several have made recent trips to Beijing to try to get a dialogue going, uh, because we are interdependent, uh, and, uh, uh, decoupling where Apple makes no, none of its computers in China isn't realistic and, uh, isn't necessarily good.
Uh, if, uh, at the same time, from the Chinese perspective, we see their economy slowing, uh, Uh, their challenges mounting, um, and, uh, uh, their aggressiveness in a lot of their foreign policy, uh, boomeranging, uh, and, uh, scaring their neighbors. So, uh, I think, uh, we'll see, uh, it's going to be a tricky, as we were discussing a tricky balancing act, but, uh, I, I, I, I do.
I think we need to come up with a transparent definition of what de risking means, and it means still working together while, um, lessening fears on both sides.
[00:23:12] Marco Ciappelli: Well, politics is the art of compromise. So eventually, you know, we all yell and, and say something and, and, and threat, and then we all hope that no, it's not going to come down to turning those threats into actions.
You know, sometimes the yelling, it's enough. And I hope that's the case. One last question. And then I have another one, but it's nothing to do with this. It's something I saw in your bio. I'm going to ask you to end this conversation. But related to this, the role of the European community In this and and is it kind of like a mediator position or , why is there a pact similar that that can take place or
[00:23:59] Bill Echikson: well, I mean, yeah, no, it's a good question.
Again, um, You know, the transatlantic alliance is has always been central to america's post war american foreign policy We have a military alliance nato uh, we didn't have a you know such a A tripartite pact as in asia uh with with south korea and and japan and I think these conversations are going on with Europe at the same time.
I mean we discussed the ask the asml and the way the dutch and the europeans joined export controls um
[00:24:38] Marco Ciappelli: commercially speaking is there like Are they part of this agreement because the fact that they are already allies from a military perspective that does imply that you need to be also taking these steps from an economic perspective?
[00:24:56] Bill Echikson: They were directly involved in the European relationship with, Uh, the asian allies is Somewhat different they don't have the same military presence as as the united states. Uh, um on the other hand The the europeans have done a free trade deal with japan most recently and with south korea even before that so And I believe these are global discussions.
I Happen to be in hiroshima when there was the g7 discussion in the south Um, and, uh, at Hiroshima, the, a lot of these same topics came up about de risking from China. The subtext of the, of, of, of the, the conference in, in, uh, in Hiroshima was the Chinese threatened how to manage and deal with that. Uh threat, um, so that was a precursor to what what happened in in regionally with the uh, camp david report, but this is uh, you know the alliance, uh, the all the democracies in the world are facing a threat from a rising autocracy, uh, you know, uh, russia was is sort of a tech minnow Uh wasn't isn't an economic threat.
Uh Definitely a security threat and uh, China is both a security and tech threat at a different level and that's why I think You know, we were talking in, uh, Camp David, Hiroshima, uh, be it, uh, with all the Europeans, Americans and, um, Asian democracies together about how to respond. And that's a, that's a big challenge, uh, I think geopolitically for the next decade at least, uh, more than Russia, uh, which is a regional actor and, uh, a regional danger.
[00:26:47] Marco Ciappelli: Right. And then, you know, we hear a lot of conversation about risk in that case when we talk about cyber security because the hacking groups and the damage that you could do by doing other, other things. But, well, Bill, I really appreciate this conversation. I hope it clarifies a lot of things for our audience and, you know, great perspective.
Looking at the past the present and also the possibility for the future Uh, I want to finish this on a completely different angle Like I said that you wrote a book on the history of the Bordeaux wine region And uh, and do we do you see a risk of uh having to stop exporting that as well or Chianti?
[00:27:29] Bill Echikson: Yeah, I know that wine has been a constant, uh, uh Tension whenever the America gets mad it slaps tariffs on Bordeaux wine the book actually was I Have written a lot about food and wine as a journalist and The book really was about American European relations It was about an American Uh, wine critic who shook up the the social standing in Bordeaux, shook up the, uh, allowed guys in the garage to make wine that was as expensive as the old noble rot in their big chateau.
Um, so I, I think wine and food is also a good window onto society and I've always been interested in that. Um, tech is as well now, uh, how we feel about the, the digital, uh, uh, world and I would, uh, say, you know, I'm trying to bring the same sort of colorful writing to tech policy. Check us out at, uh, Bandwidth.
It's called at CIPA.Org and, um, yes, I will write about wine technology as much as I will about
[00:28:44] Marco Ciappelli: There is a lot of technology and AI in agriculture and wine production as well. So, uh, that's another great topic to, to discuss, but, but I wanted to go there too.
[00:28:56] Bill Echikson: I wrote a book about, uh, A great French chef who had two Michelin stars and one of a third.
And so, um, you know, and ,
[00:29:04] Marco Ciappelli: well, maybe you come on my other show, the audio signals and we talk about, uh, the book and the storytelling parts. So see, this was a great connection, but I want to end up by, uh, saying that, you know, we, we've been open and known about CEPA's work for, for a time now, and, uh, Uh, there is a Center for European Policy Analysis, and, uh, I'm sure we'll have more, more guests, uh, on the, on the show, because it's definitely relevant, and I, and I love the way that you're being very above the parts, and very, uh, you know, looking at things from different perspective.
And again, I want to thank you for this really, really interesting conversation, and I will put the links to the article, to your Social media if you if you want to and people that listen can find this on the notes get in touch with you the publication and Comment share subscribe all of that. So Again, thank you so much.
[00:30:03] Bill Echikson: Thank you. Appreciate it was fun.
[00:30:05] Marco Ciappelli: All right. Thank you very much. Bye everybody